Is anyone surprised that the Seattle Police are tracking people’s social media, including location? I mean Geofeedia seems like creepsville in general. Add to that people with guns and tasers and the ability to literally arrest you.
Since my previous analysis, nearly 50 new state head-to-head polls have been released in the match-up between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Actually, many more state head-to-head polls have been released, but they are based on internet samples, so they don’t qualify by the rules for poll inclusion.) The polls were all taken before and just up to the first debate on Monday night. Subsequent analysis will reveal what effect, if any, the first debate may have had on the race.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 79,245 times and Trump wins 20,755 times (including the 1,915 ties). Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 79.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 20.8% probability of winning. This is a tiny bump in probability (+0.3%) for Clinton relative to last week.
In Colorado, four new polls have been added that give a tiny bump to Trump. He went from a 48.8% chance last week to a 51.4% chance now. The state is, essentially, tied. The polling history, suggests a real change in Trump’s favor over the past three months.
New polls in Maine confirm what we already knew. Clinton would likely win now, but CD-1 would go to Clinton and CD-2 would go to Trump.
A new poll in Minnesota brings some certainty to that state. Clinton went from an 88% probability of taking the state last week to 95% this week.
We finally have our first polling for Nebraska’s congressional districts. NE-1 and 3 are solidly Trump. NE-2, which went for Obama in 2008, doesn’t look like it will split off from the rest of the state this election, with an 84% probability of going to Trump right now.
This week we gain three new North Carolina polls and lose two older ones. The three new polls favor Clinton, so the state has gone from 68.7% probability for Trump last week to a 52.2% chance for Clinton this week. North Carolina is tied.
With the loss of two, and the gain of three Ohio polls, Trump edges up from 90.3% to a 94.6% chance of taking the state.
Washington finally gets a new poll, and it is surprisingly close. The evidence suggests Clinton would only take the state now with an 87.7% probability. Even so, Trump has yet to win a Washington state poll.
Finally, Wisconsin loses two old polls and gains a new one. The race looks surprisingly close with Clinton dropping from an 98.4% to a 90.8% chance of taking the state. As with Washington, Trump has yet to win a Wisconsin poll. The race does seem to tighten up in recent weeks.
I know the post-debate analysis has been done already. But I just want to highlight this that Trump said.
And when it comes to stop-and-frisk, you know, you’re talking about takes guns away. Well, I’m talking about taking guns away from gangs and people that use them. And I don’t think — I really don’t think you disagree with me on this, if you want to know the truth.
There were some people who called out in real time how shitty it was that he was telling a woman how she really feels. And yeah.
But the other part of the dynamic is white people talking to other white people. One says something racist and the other person rejects it. It can be a joke, or some “observation” or a policy proposal. And the other person doesn’t agree. But the first person insists that the other person approves of their joke or observation or policy proposal. No matter how much they say they don’t.
This is the same dynamic of people yelling about PC culture.
Okay…the debate is about to begin. Have at it in the comment threads. I’ll post my nuggets of wisdom from the folks at Drinking Liberally and from Twitter.
[6:05] Opening topic: reducing income inequality in a period of low unemployment.
Clinton: Invest, invest, invest.
Drumpf: CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
Trump claims that U.S. doesn’t have the largest, most sophisticated manufacturing facilities in the world. Ummm…Mr. Trump, ever hear of Boeing’s plant in Everett? Largest in the world.
TRUMP: THE WALL IS TO KEEP YOU IN
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) September 27, 2016
Ford is not leaving. Trump is lying #debatenight
— Cliff Schecter (@cliffschecter) September 27, 2016
[6:13] Drumpf, “The U.S. doesn’t know what it is doing” in manufacturing. Unbelievable!
[6:14] Drumpf is starting to fall apart already, with his little aside to Clinton.
[6:15] Drumpf’s import tax bring to mind Bill Murray’s famous SNL lounge skit: “Trade Wars / If they had made wars / Let there be trade wars / ooohhh oh yeah.
— esd2000 (@esd2000) September 27, 2016
[6:19] Again and again, Drumpf tells us what we “have to do” without any concrete proposals.
[6:20] Clinton successfully holds off Drumpf’s attempt at disruption.
Trump is so good at deflecting the "how" questions. #debatenight
— Julian Gottlieb (@JulianGottlieb) September 27, 2016
[6:21] Hello? Moderators?
Here we go. Trump is losing control. He tried hard, but she is getting under his skin. #Debate
— Samuel Minter (@abulsme) September 27, 2016
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) September 27, 2016
[6:26]: Drumpf completely LOST IT! “No wonder you have been fighting ISIS your entire life.” ISIS didn’t even exist when she last held a government position.
Can't wait until Lester Holt shows up.
— Ken Rudin (@kenrudin) September 27, 2016
Baby has a lot of tantrums #DEBATES
— Sarah Silverman (@SarahKSilverman) September 27, 2016
Trump: "I'm going to bring back the jobs that left under Bush by giving rich people the tax breaks Bush gave them."#Debates2016
— Top Conservative Cat (@TeaPartyCat) September 27, 2016
Trump hasn't completed a sentence this whole debate. And he's not willing to let Clinton complete either.
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) September 27, 2016
— Lizz Winstead (@lizzwinstead) September 27, 2016
Hillary: "You're just going to blame me for everything."
Trump: "Why not!?"
An adult just said that on national television.
— Rap Critic (@itstherapcritic) September 27, 2016
[6:33]: Drumpf has an audit conspiracy.
Trump calls Clinton "all talk." Let that sink in. #debates
— Sydney Brownstone (@sydbrownstone) September 27, 2016
[6:39]: “We spent 6 trillion dollars in the middle east” and we didn’t even take all of their oil….
[6:40]: Clinton may have used a private email server, but at least she paid her IT subcontractors.
Trump social media team deleted the tweet. The Internet never forgets you morons. pic.twitter.com/hXy10P5Asb
— Redeye (@PaulChaloner) September 27, 2016
[6:43]: Drumpf has calmed down, but is having trouble focusing.
[6:44]: Drumpf things Hillary is afraid to say “law and order”. WTF?!?
[6:48]: Drumpf is rattling off endorsements. What’s next, poll numbers?
[6:50]: Donald Trump wants to take guns away…from dark-skinned people.
[6:52]: Clinton makes a passionate argument for justice reform. Trump’s response, “she won’t law and order!” and “stop and frisk!”
It'll be VERY interesting to see if Trump gets crushed in the press for that Al Gore sigh.
— David Waldman (@KagroX) September 27, 2016
— Grace Parra (@GraceParra360) September 27, 2016
[7:00]: Dear @realDonaldTrump Obama produced the standard Hawaii birth certificate in 2008.
Trump on being fined for racial discrimination: “it’s just one of those things.”
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 27, 2016
OMG, the only thing worse than a "I have a black friend" answer is "I let them into my private club."
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) September 27, 2016
[7:12]: DJT uses “Cyber” incorrectly. Clearly new to the word. Norbert Weiner spins in his grave.
[7:15]:Drumpf blames Obama/Clinton for leaving Iraq. You know…the withdrawal that was set up by Bush’s failure to come to an agreement with Iraq.
[7:22]: At the end of a crazy, defensive tyrade, “I have better judgement than her.”
[7:24]: Trump is sniffling a lot. Is he well enough to be President?????????
[7:26]: Clinton’s “caviler attitude about nuclear weapons” segment was potent.
[7:27]: Holy shit. @realDonaldTrump understanding of defending other countries amounts to gangster movies.
The Esquire article to which Trump refers was not "right after" the war. It was 17 months after the war.
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 27, 2016
— Danielle Guilday (@DanielleOnRadio) September 27, 2016
Everyone should read this. https://t.co/Ire1HfUuzS
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) September 27, 2016
[7:33]: Clinton’s strategy: say something clear. Let Drumpf babble.
[7:35]: No shit on Clinton’s statement on stamina. Look at her freaking schedule while SOS! Brutal travel and meeting schedule.
Did anyone else go to the Angle Lake Station? I skipped the opening ceremony, but did check it out later in the day. It’s a lot more isolated than any of the other stations. Just walking around it looked like it was mostly hotels and a federal detention center that I didn’t know existed. I guess that’s probably good for future growth. Maybe.
I’d prefer a Graham Street Station (or other places where it’s a long distance between stations) to that. But I guess the goal is to get further and further South. I’m always happy with more light rail, so it was pretty neat.
Also, a lot of parking.
The first presidential debate will take place Monday between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. There are a few liberal debate-watching parties you might want to join. Here are the ones I know about:
- The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally and Horsesass.org will host a party from 6-8pm at our regular venue, the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern.
- A debate-watching party, hosted by The Ave, will happen in Seattle’s Fremont neighborhood at the Hotel-Hotel bar, 3517 Fremont Ave N, Seattle. The program features guest and commentator Joe Pakootas, congressional candidate for E Washington and Chief of the Colville nation.
- KUOW Public Radio and Humanities Washington will have a debate-watching party, hosted by Ross Reynolds and Zaki Barak Hamid at the Naked City Brewery and Taphouse, 6564 Greenwood Ave N, Seattle
- The Tacoma Chaper of Drinking Liberally will host a debate watching party starting at 5:30 PM at the Tacoma Parkway Tavern, 313 N I St #1, Tacoma
- The Yakima Chapter of Drinking Liberally will host a potluck & BYOB Watch Party for the presidential debate. The Party starts at 5:15pm at the Strader’s residence, 10 N. 45th Ave., Yakima. Please RSVP Rob at 509-728-4188.
- Portland Monthly is hosting a Presidential Debate Bingo event during the first debate. Some folks from the Vancouver, WA chapter of Drinking Liberally will be there. The event will be at the Lagunitas Community Room, 237 NE Broadway, Suite 300, Portland, OR
Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. On Tuesday, the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and North Spokane chapters meet. The Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. And the following Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
The Lord is a jealous God, filled with vengeance and rage.
Roll Call: Government shutdown looms.
Stephen with Michelle Obama: Imitating Barack.
Kimmel on presidential debate topics.
The 2016 Racist, Sexist, Homophobic, All-Around-Great-Hater Clown Show:
- Mark Fiore: Gloater-in-Chief
- Samantha Bee: Master Media Baiter
- Sam Seder: Drumpf African-American town hall (with Hannity!), “We need more stop & frisk!
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf—Mosquitos
- PsychoSuperMom: (Trump’s) Addicted To Lies
- The Donald Drumpf supporter Apple commercial:
- Red State Update: Drumpf says Obama was born in America
- Keith Olbermann: The real secret behind Drumpf’s terrorism plan.
- Young Turks: Drumpf v. Scientists
- Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf pursues Black votes in front of all-White crowd
- Chris Hayes: Drumpf debate prep
- Stephen Colbert: A Black Republican insists Donald Drumpf is great for business
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf—Balcony
- Drumpf has advice for Angelina Jolie. His next wife?
- Young Turks: Drump’s misogyny is target of Clinton ad.
- Sam Seder: Racist Drumpf campaign Chair says there was no racism “until Obama got elected”
- Stephen: You should definitely take the Donald Drumpf debate prep survey
- Keith Olbermann: Trump supporters are now blaming their racism on Obama
- Young Turks: Drumpf’s brilliant outreach to African American communities, “stop and frisk”.
- Matthew Filipowicz: The real reason the cop union endorsed Drumpf.
- Keith Olbermann: The most deplorable thing Drumpf has done yet.
- Samantha Bee: Too close for comfort.
- Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at new questions about Drumpf’s Foundation
- Young Turks: Trump Jr: Syrian refugees are just like skittles
- Jimmy Dore: Jr’s Skittles tweet rooted in early Nazism
- Conan releases Drumpf’s other Candy-related ads
- Trevor Noah: Donald Drumpf is a bowl of poisoned Skittles
- Stephen: Jr. might want to check his math:
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf—Hello
- Daily Show: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse — Conspiracy theories thrive at a Drumpf rally
Adam Ruins Everything: Trophy hunting can be good for animals?
Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship—Obama Edition.
Stephen with Michelle Obama on political spouses.
Hillary Makes History:
- Stephen: Hillary Clinton preps for two Drumpfs at the debate
- Jimmy Fallon with Sec. Clinton: Kids’ letters
- Jimmy Fallon with Sec. Clinton: Hillary Clinton on her health and recovery from pneumonia
- Jimmy Fallon with Sec. Clinton: Breaking barriers, fighting bigotry and debating Drumpf
- Jimmy Fallon with Sec. Clinton: Balancing seriousness with positivity as a woman
- Between Two Ferns with Sec. Hillary
Secret Service won’t let Stephen see FLOTUS.
Thom: Open source voting explained.
Samantha Bee: The week in HUH? Super delegate-lobbyists.
Susie Sampson: Picking between gays and Muslims.
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) September 23, 2016
Mel Brooks pranks Obama.
Mental Floss: 31 weird discontinued products.
John Oliver: The refugee crisis.
Sam Seder: OMG! Christie knew about Bridgegate.
This Week in Cops Killing Black People:
- Young Turks: Charlotte victim’s wife posts her phone footage
- Jimmy Dore: Killer cops get rich more than they get punished
- Trevor Noah: Terence Crutcher’s police shooting & racial bias in America
- Young Turks: Tulsa officer Betty Shelby charged with manslaughter of Terence Crutcher
- Jimmy Dore: Unarmed, disabled Black man killed by police
- Stephen: The State of Emergency in Charlotte
- Jimmy Dore: Police shoot Black man when his car breaks down
- Young Turks: USA Today Columnist on protesters, “Run them down”
— Bill Maher (@billmaher) September 24, 2016
- Conan with Marshawn Lynch on the Colin Kaepernick controversy.
- Young Turks: Black woman paints herself white to make a point.
White House: West Wing Week.
Taco Truck Guy on typical Mexicans.
Bill Maher with a New Rule: Bring civility back to politics.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
The Democrats would still be unlikely to take the Senate in an election held today. Nevertheless the Republicans have lost ground since the previous analysis. Ten days ago Democrats had an 11.8% chance of taking the Senate. Today their chances are nearly 30%.
After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 4934 times, there were 24613 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 70453 times. Democrats have a 29.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 70.5% probability of controlling the Senate. This analysis assumes that the Vice President will be a Democrat.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 29.5%, Republicans control the Senate 70.5%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.0 ( 1.0)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.0 ( 1.0)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
- Democratic seats w/no election: 35
- Independent seats w/no election: one
- Republican seats w/no election: 30
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: four
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
|State||@||polls||size||Dem||Rep||% wins||% wins|
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
I’m all for the City Attorney’s office suing the crap out of people who cut those trees down in West Seattle. I mean fuck them. Oh, my view could be better if I just clear cut city land illegally is not an OK thing.
Last week’s analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 309 EVs to 229 EV, and gave Clinton a 96.2% chance of winning an election held then.
About 25 new polls have been released since then, and Trump has made further gains. Now, a Monte Carlo analysis of head-to-head polls gives Clinton 78,889 wins and Trump 21,111 wins (including the 2,468 ties) out of 100,000 simulated elections. Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 78.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 21.1% probability of winning.
Here are a few notes for individual states.
There isn’t a lot of good news for Clinton, but in Arizona, an old Trump+5% poll aged out, leaving a series of much closer polls. Consequently, Trump’s probability of winning the state has dropped from 92.5% to only 80.5%.
Something similar has happened in Florida. A clear outlier poll with Clinton up +14% has aged out, and we have two new polls. The tally has Clinton leading 3 and Trump leading 3 with one tie. The net result is that we went from Clinton with a 82% probability of taking the state last week to a 59% chance of Trump taking the state this week. Florida is a toss-up.
In Maine a new SurveyUSA poll gives us verification that Maine’s 2nd CD is strongly for Trump, while the 1st CD is strongly for Clinton. The CDs would split in an election held now. Overall, however, Clinton would take the state.
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota has Clinton at +6% over Trump. Still, the small size of the poll means that Clinton’s chances are pegged at 88%. The longer polling history suggests Clinton would easily take the state.
Nevada has flipped. We have five current polls, and Trump has small leads in the last four polls. Last week we gave Clinton a 63% chance of winning Nevada. Now Trump has a 68% chance. Clearly, Nevada is a swing state.
North Carolina has flipped as well. Clinton had a tenuous lead last week, with a 58% chance of taking the state. With three new polls that all go to Trump, the GOP nominee now has a 69% chance of winning the state.
Ohio has strengthened for Trump on account of a new Trump+5% poll. Trump has led in the past 5 polls, raising his chances from 78% last week to 90% this week.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22 Sep 2015 to 22 Sep 2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Trump is now in his strongest position of the entire election cycle, even though his chances of winning are about 1 in 5. This change reflects what we have seen in the national polls a week or two ago. Since these analyses rely on state polls, there is a lag as new polls come in and old polls drop out. The next week will be interesting to see if and where Trump “maxes out”, as Clinton seems to be recovering from her bad streak of national polls.
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Secure Scheduling. Seattle has secure scheduling. Just like with sick leave/safe leave and with various state and local minimum wage initiatives, the business community are having a sad. But just like those things, it’ll be a bit better than it was before for working folks.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate (preparation) over drinks.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, next Monday, the Shoreline chapter meets.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Somehow I missed that Park(ing) Day just happened. It looks like many of the locations were pretty fun. And somehow cars still exist. The war on cars is going pretty poorly.
Song of Solomon 4:5-6
Your breasts are perfect;
they are twin deer
feeding among lilies.
I will hasten to those hills
sprinkled with sweet perfume
and stay there till sunrise.